Sunday, October 4, 2020
1:00 – 1:30 pm: Zoom for Event Sponsors with Candidates
1:30 pm – 2:30 pm: General Zoom with Candidates.
A note from Academy Award Winning Screenwriter Billy Ray on why we are doing this fundraiser, and why these races are so important: If the election of the President ends up in the House of Representatives, we need to win these 7 seats to prevail.
Dear Friends–
Ted Lieu just pitched me a very scary but possible scenario:
ELECTION NIGHT: Biden wins Florida. Hoo-Ray!
But the Florida Sec’y of State refuses to certify the vote.
And neither Biden nor Trump gets to 270 electoral votes. So…
The decision is thrown to the House – where EACH STATE DELEGATION IN THE NEW CONGRESS WILL GET ONE VOTE.
Right now, Dems control 23 State Delegations in the House.
GOP controls 26.
Vote goes 26-23.
Trump is elected. BUT…
If we win just seven specific House races, that can’t happen. These are the ones that can give us control of enough State Delegations to WIN THE PRESIDENCY IN A HOUSE VOTE. They are:
ALASKA, which has just one Representative. ALYSE GALVIN can win that seat.
MONTANA, also has one Representative. KATHLEEN WILLIAMS can win that seat.
MICHIGAN, where a win for JON HOADLEY would be huge.
PENNSYLVANIA, where electing EUGENE DEPASQUALE and re-electing Cong. MATT CARTWRIGHT would do the trick.
FLORIDA, where electing MARGARET GOOD and re-electing CONG. DEBBIE MUCARSEL-POWELL would save our Democracy.
So Ted and I are doing a fundraising Zoom for these SEVEN CANDIDATES in those five insanely-crucial states. They could literally be the difference between Biden and disaster.
Please join us. It’s going to be lively as hell.
October 4, 1 PM PDT. Happy to say there’s a $100 Very-Important-Democrat level, because I hate snooty Zooms!
Best,
Billy
Here’s the invite:
Save the Democracy Fundraiser MDC Invite 100420
Donations will be divided equally between the 7 Candidates, and Ted Lieu’s Blue Momentum Pac, which also donates funds to Democratic candidates.
Here’s the Rundown on the 7 Candidates and Races Involved:
ALASKA: AK-1, Alaska’s only seat in Congress, AK
INCUMBENT (GOP): Al Young, 84 years old, longest-serving Member of Congress, won GOP primary handily.
OPPONENT (Independent): Alyse Galvin, non-partisan, but supported by both Dems and Independence Party.
Cook Political Report: Competitive Race. “Lean Republican”, but Polls in May and July put Galvin neck in neck with incumbent.
Real Clear Politics: Likely GOP. Trump won this district by 15.2% in 2016, and Romney by 14.1% in 2012.
Latest Poll (from 538 Poll reports): July 7-8: Galvin (Indep/Dem) 43% vs. Young (GOP) 41%
Analysis: Very competitive race in historically GOP stronghold. Galvin performing very well.
FLORIDA: FL-16
INCUMBENT (GOP): Vern Buchanan
DEM Candidate: Margaret Good (current 1st Term HR from FL-72)
Cook Political Report: Competitive Race. “Likely Republican”
Real Clear Politics: Likely GOP.
Latest Poll (from 538 Poll Reports): August Poll: D: 35% vs. R: 51%
Analysis: Polling has been strongly in Buchanan’s favor since January, but the race is still viewed as competitive.
FLORIDA: FL-26
INCUMBENT (DEM): Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (1st elected in 2018)
GOP Candidate: Carlos Gimenez, current Mayor of Miami-Dade County since 2011, former Fire Chief (endorsed by Trump)
Cook Political Report: Competitive Race. “Democratic Toss Up”
Real Clear Politics: Likely Dem. Clinton and Obama won by over 10 point margins.
Latest Poll (from 538 Poll Reports): July Poll: D: 42% vs. R: 47%
Analysis: Mucasel-Powell is a good incumbent, but Gimenez is a very strong contender. GOP could flip a Democratic seat. Worth working hard on this one.
MONTANA: MT-61 (At large district)
INCUMBENT (GOP): Gregg Gianforte – running for Governor in 2020 (pleaded guilty to a 2017 misdemeanor assault on reporter from the Guardian, apologized in his 2018 race for the House)
GOP Candidate: Matt Rosendale
DEM Candidate: Kathleen Williams (D) Represented MT-21 from 2011-2017. She lost the seat to Gianforte in 2018, is running to get it back.
GREEN PARTY: John Gibney
Cook Political Report: Competitive Race. “Lean Republican” but too close to call.
Real Clear Politics: Leans GOP.
Latest Poll (from 538 Poll Reports): August: D 51% v. R 48%. July: Internal Williams poll: showed a tie.
Analysis: Starting as a tie in June and early July, Williams pulled ahead in August. Neck in neck race in a district with a GOP incumbent and a state that voted for Trump in 2016. But Williams is performing well. And Dem Governor Steve Bullock is performing well in the tight race for Senate there.
MICHIGAN: MI-6
INCUMBENT (GOP): Fred Upton
DEM Candidate: Jon Hoadly (Represented MI-60 from 2015-now).
Cook Political Report: Competitive Race. “Lean Republican”
Real Clear Politics: Toss Up.
Latest Poll (from 538 Poll Reports): July 30 – Aug. 6: D 40% v. R 36%
Analysis: Classified as “Lean Republican” by the Cook Political Report, but Democrat Hoadly is performing well against the GOP incumbent.
PENNSYLVANIA: PA-08 (re-elect Dem incumbent)
INCUMBENT (DEM): Matt Cartwright
GOP Candidate: Jon Bognet
Cook Political Report: Competitive Race. “Lean Democratic”. Toss up.
Real Clear Politics: Toss up. Trump won by 9.6% in 2016. Obama by 11.9%/14.4% in 2008/2012.
Latest Poll (from 538 Poll Reports): None reported!
Analysis: The outcome of this race is viewed by the DCCC as affecting partisan control of the House in the 117th Congress. Cartwright was first elected to PA’s 17th District in 2012. Following court-ordered redistricting in 2018, he was elected to the 8th District, defeating John Chrin (R) with 54.6% of the vote to Chrin’s 45.4%. In February 2019, Cartwright was named among the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC)’s Frontline program members. DCCC Chairwoman Cheri Bustos said, “Our Majority hinges on these Members from tough seats winning reelection in 2020, and with today’s announcement we’re sending a clear message that the DCCC will stand shoulder to shoulder with them in the fight ahead.”
PENNSYLVANIA: PA-10
INCUMBENT (GOP): Perry
DEM Candidate: Eugene DePasquale.
Cook Political Report: Competitive Race. “Republican Toss Up”
Real Clear Politics: Toss Up.
Latest Poll (from 538 Poll Reports): Neck in neck. Some polls in August and September show DePasquale slightly ahead, some with Perry slightly ahead. All within 2-4% points.
Analysis: A squeaker to the end if the polls stay like this. The last 3 Pres. races were won by the GOP, Trump by 8.9%, but DePasquale performing well.
Handy References:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/
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